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Q2 2026 Second quarterly reading

Middle Tennessee Business Confidence Index

Still optimistic — with less conviction.

Confidence scored 57.2 out of 100, down 2.9 points from Q1. National CEO confidence fell much harder — 12 points, to 47 — leaving Middle Tennessee 10.2 points ahead of the national benchmark.

Business Confidence Index
Middle Tennessee
57.2
▼ 2.9 from 60.1 in Q1
Conference Board Index
National
47.0
▼ 12.0 from 59.0 in Q1
050 neutral100
Q2 2026 positions · see both quarters plotted
Executive Summary · Q2 2026

Middle Tennessee businesses stayed on the optimistic side of neutral, but with less conviction. The index eased to 57.2 from 60.1 in Q1, while the Conference Board's national CEO benchmark fell from 59 to 47 — widening the region's advantage from 1.1 points to 10.2. Sentiment about current conditions (65.6) again runs ahead of expectations for the months to come (58.1). Eight of the ten core questions softened, and the sharpest moves were local: housing-cost concern and zoning & permitting each fell more than 11 points.

  • ▲ Strongest signal 69.3 Sales outlook for next quarter — down from 74.8, but still the survey's highest reading.
  • ▼ Biggest worry 42.0 Tax & regulatory policy — the weakest component for a second straight quarter (44.7 in Q1).
  • ⚠ Sharpest drop 38.4 Housing-cost concern, down 11.4 points; 55.8% are very or extremely concerned.
  • ★ Top policy ask 39% Tax relief or property-assessment reform, up from 26% of comments in Q1.
Overall
57.2
▼ 2.9 vs Q1 · +10.2 vs national Conference Board CEO Confidence Index. A quarterly national survey of U.S. CEOs at major companies, asking how confident they feel about the economy and their own business. It fell from 59 in Q1 2026 to 47 in Q2 — below the neutral 50 line. Middle Tennessee's 57.2 sits 10.2 points above that benchmark. The two surveys use different questions and samples, so the national reading is context, not an identical comparison.
Right now
65.6
▼ 3.9 Still strong
Looking ahead
58.1
▼ 2.6 More cautious
Tax & policy
42.0
▼ 2.7 Biggest worry
Housing concern
38.4
▼ 11.4 Sharpest drop

Q1 to Q2

Two quarters of readings, against the national CEO benchmark. Above 50 = more positive than negative.

Middle Tennessee Conference Board (national) Neutral 50
Middle Tennessee
60.1 → 57.2
▼ 2.9 points

Eased, but stayed clearly above the neutral 50 line.

National CEO index
59.0 → 47.0
▼ 12.0 points

Dropped below neutral — national CEOs turned net-negative.

Regional advantage
+1.1 → +10.2
▲ 9.1 points

Middle Tennessee's edge over the national benchmark widened ninefold.

Question by question

How businesses scored each topic in both quarters, on a 0–100 scale. Above 50 = positive.

Q1 2026 Q2 2026 · positive Q2 2026 · negative Neutral 50
Strongest
Sales next quarter 74.8 in Q1
69.3
Weakest
Tax & regulations 44.7 in Q1
42.0
Gained ground
Equipment investment +1.3 and U.S. economy +0.8 — the only components to rise
2/10

Local issues

How three Middle Tennessee challenges are landing on businesses — Q1 above, Q2 below.

56.4
Infrastructure ▬ 0.3
Are road and infrastructure projects helping or hurting?
Q1
Q2
38.4
Housing costs ▼ 11.4
Are housing costs making it hard to attract or keep workers?
Q1
Q2
55.8
Zoning & permitting ▼ 11.3
Are zoning or permitting changes affecting your operations?
Q1
Q2

In Q2, 55.8% of respondents were very or extremely concerned about housing costs (up from 35.0%), and 46.5% said zoning or permitting affects operations somewhat or significantly (up from 33.3%).

In their words

When asked open-ended questions, here's what business leaders said. Bars show the share of Q2 comments on each theme; the tick marks where Q1 landed.

▲ Top opportunities
    All 7 coded themes · multi-label coding, so shares don't sum to 100%
    ▼ Biggest challenges
      9 most-cited themes of 11 · multi-label coding, so shares don't sum to 100%
      ★ What they want from policymakers
        All 8 coded themes · multi-label coding, so shares don't sum to 100%

        Who responded

        A snapshot of the businesses behind the numbers. Switch quarters to compare the panels.

        Industry
        Employees
        Annual revenue
        Years in business
        Minority/women-owned
        Respondent role
        Not collected in Q1 2026

        Shares are percentages of each quarter's panel. Q1 asked about minority-owned status; Q2 asked about minority- or women-owned status.

        How we measure it

        We ask businesses to rate things like sales, hiring, and the economy. Each answer earns points, and we average them on a 0–100 scale where 50 is neutral. Above 50 means more businesses are positive than negative. The method is the same one the Conference Board uses for its national CEO Confidence Index, so the scores can be compared — though the two surveys use different questions and samples, so the national figure is context rather than an identical benchmark.

        The headline index averages the ten core questions (Q2–Q11). The three local diagnostics — infrastructure, housing costs, and zoning & permitting — are reported separately and are not part of the composite.

        Q2 2026 · Middle Tennessee CEO Panel. Released August 2026. Q1 2026 released April 2026. There is no Q3 2026 reading: the survey paused that quarter while it moved from individual invitations to a standing panel. The next reading is Q4 2026.

        Business and Economic Research Center berc.mtsu.edu
        Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce nashvillechamber.com
        Get involved

        Help shape the Q4 2026 index.

        The Business and Economic Research Center at Middle Tennessee State University surveys the Middle Tennessee CEO Panel every quarter. The Q4 response window is open now, for a limited time: panelists can sign in with their Access ID, and business owners who'd like to take part can sign up to join.

        Panelists: take the survey now Join the panel

        To share data or collaborate on research, we'd love to hear from you.

        Direct inquiries to Dr. Murat Arik, Director, Business and Economic Research Center.

        Email berc@mtsu.edu Phone (615) 898-2610 Web berc.mtsu.edu
        Visit Jones College of Business
        1301 E. Main St., Murfreesboro, TN 37132